Disclaimer: The datasets shared in the following article have been compiled from a set of online resources and do not reflect AMBCrypto’s own research on the subject
With Bitcoin’s (BTC) trading volume rocketing beyond $40 billion, the digital asset’s price has been on an up-and-down roller coaster. Many traders and investors are unsure of where Bitcoin will go next as the market develops.bangladesh
Read Price Prediction for Bitcoin [BTC] 2023-24
More importantly, compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin continues to draw institutions more than any other cryptocurrencies, with corporate and government treasuries holding BTC valued at slightly over $30 billion as of this writing.
In reality, the Basel Committee of the BIS estimates that the global banks currently own over $9 billion in cryptocurrency, with Bitcoin and derivatives based on it accounting for 56% of this total.
The fact that institutional investors are placing substantial bets on Bitcoin must be noted. Michael Saylor, a co-founder of MicroStrategy, has a strong bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
Approximately 130,000 BTC, or 0.62% of the 19 million Bitcoin currently in circulation, are owned by his company.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs’ recent declaration of support for Bitcoin has increased investor confidence in the cryptocurrency. It is possible to anticipate that this news will significantly increase Bitcoin’s value. According to a recent tweet from a single user, the S&P 500, US Treasury bonds, gold, and other well-known indices were all beaten by Bitcoin in Goldman Sachs’ ranking of the best-performing assets for 2022.
A CNBC article pointed out that history has shown that bull runs in the price of Bitcoin typically last four years. The initial step of this cycle is the accumulation of Bitcoin, which is followed by an uptrend, selling or distribution of the cryptocurrency, and finally a downtrend. Some scholars believe 2023 might mark the start of the accumulation phase.
This article will briefly look at the cryptocurrency’s recent market performance, with a special focus on its market cap, volume, and rate of appreciation/depreciation. The same will be expanded upon with the use of datasets such as non-zero addresses, no. of whale transactions, et al. It will conclude by summarizing the projections of the most popular analysts/platforms, while also looking at the Fear & Greed Index to assess the mood of the market.
Bitcoin’s price, volume, and everything in between
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $23,004 on the price charts with a lot of volatility on the daily chart.
Needless to say, BTC’s price movement had an impact on its market cap too. When the crypto’s price hit a short-term peak on 30 July, so did the market capitalization, with the same rising to $469 billion. At press time, it was down to $318 billion. As expected, BTC/USDT was the most popular trading pair on the market, with Binance enjoying a share of over 7.1% for the same.
Additionally, if positive economic news prompts investors to reevaluate their assumptions that the Federal Reserve would switch to a more dovish monetary policy any time soon, Bitcoin protects investors from losses in U.S. stocks.dhaka
However, Tesla, a maker of electric vehicles, has declined to add to its Bitcoin holdings in the second half of 2022, after having decreased them by 75% in the first quarter. Tesla did not purchase or sell any Bitcoin for the second consecutive quarter, according to its most recent Q4 results report, which was published on Jan. 25.
According to McGlone, the Fed’s interest rate negotiations will most likely lay the framework for Bitcoin to maintain its upward trajectory and outperform most asset classes. The commodity expert also predicted that Bitcoin would be the asset with the best performance in H2 2022.
Despite this, Bitcoin supporters have contended that the cryptocurrency is uniquely positioned to replace gold as a haven asset, an inflation hedge, or even both.
In fact, according to on-chain data, more Bitcoin whales with 1,000 to 10,000 BTCs in their wallets have appeared recently, indicating that investors have been accumulating the cryptocurrency.
In the meantime, BitVol, a volatility indicator, has “begun to break down,” plunging to close to its lowest levels since the spring, according to Jake Gordon at Bespoke Investment Group. The index, at press time, was hovering at 69, down from over 111 in May.
According to Mike Novogratz, the CEO of cryptocurrency investing firm Galaxy Digital, the gloomy trend may continue for another two to six months. The majority of investors that required fiat have already sold their assets, he claimed, and sellers are severely depleted. However, the Fed’s monetary policy needs to shift to buck the trend.
Top-tier Bitcoin whales are continuing to sell, and they currently have between 100 and 10,000 BTC. Over the course of the previous year, 3.5% of the supply on these crucial addresses was moved to locations having a lower impact on future price fluctuations. Just in September, another 0.4% of BTC’s supply was burned. A significant tendency to watch out for in October is the accumulation of potential whales.
Since there is still a dearth of unique BTC traveling from address to address, the NVT signal has given out a bearish signal for the second consecutive month. A change in the same could indicate a bullish trend. And yet, crypto has developed into one of the largest assets in the world from being ultimately almost worthless. Bitcoin’s market capitalization peaked even higher than several well-known companies.
One thing that is instantly clear from this data is that Bitcoin’s price cycles are getting shorter. Furthermore, even though the coin frequently loses value, the average price of Bitcoin keeps rising. This indicates a promising pattern for the future.
And despite everyone writing it off, the crypto sector, including Bitcoin, is renowned for its resilience and capacity for comebacks. For the past eight years, different financial experts have consistently predicted that the Bitcoin bubble will burst “soon.” However, the coin is still in demand and BTC investors make significant returns.
Why these projections matter
The following article will touch upon these projections. With BTC emerging as a strong store of value of late, it is crucial investors are aware of where popular analysts see the cryptocurrency heading over the next decade. These projections, while not an absolute certainty in any way, can help traders and holders make smart decisions.
That’s not all, however. According to CoinGecko, for instance, Bitcoin enjoys a market share of just under 38%. While this figure isn’t as high as it was back in 2017 or even, 2021, it’s a significant share. By extension, what it means is that whatever happens to Bitcoin, the rest of the altcoin market is bound to see a ripple effect. Ergo, even if you’re only into altcoins, what BTC performs will affect you too.
On 19 September, 620K Bitcoin tokens were added to all exchanges, according to Santiment’s Exchange Inflow Indicator. As a result, there are currently 11,879,200,000 dollars’ worth of Bitcoin available for sale at any time.
The aforementioned may be good news for investors. Especially since many would see this as a good opportunity to buy BTC on the low. In fact, while BTC is still over 69% away from its ATH of over $69,000, there’s a lot of optimism around.
Consider the comments of the legendary Bill Miller, for instance. He was in the news a while back when he claimed,
“Bitcoin’s supply is growing around 2.5 percent a year, and the demand is growing faster than that.”
To Miller, this growth in demand will be accompanied by a corresponding hike in price too, with a target of $100,000 being thrown around by some. In fact, a similar logic was applied by Bloomberg Intelligence when it claimed that the demand and adoption curves pointed to a projection of $100,000 by 2025.
The best times to start Bitcoin businesses are during bear markets. The nine-week Legends of the Lightning tournament between competing Bitcoin businesses would seem to support that.
Over 65 events from all over the world participated in the tournament-turned-hackathon, which comprised 73 projects competing for a piece of the 3 BTC ($50,000) up for grabs. The champions of the Global Adoption and Building for Africa competition tracks were announced as Lightsats, Mutiny Wallet, and AgriMint, respectively.
One can argue that over the last few years, much of Bitcoin’s demand and adoption has been driven by its emergence as a store of value. In fact, while quite a few are into it for the tech, many others are into Bitcoin for a good return on their investment. It is in this regard that it’s worth looking at how its ROIs have been. According to Messari, for instance, at the time of writing, BTC was offering negative ROIs of -27% and -41% over a 3-month and a 1-year window, respectively.
Understandably, the aforementioned datasets are products of how BTC has been doing on the price charts of late. Thanks to its most recent drawdown, its ROIs have been negative. Even so, there are a few factors that seem to underline a bullish turn for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
For instance, the number of Bitcoin addresses holding 0.1+ coins hit an ATH. Furthermore, the $BTC Percent Supply in Profit (7d MA) just hit a 1-month high of 60.513% too while the aSOPR (7d MA) struck a 3-month high. That’s not all either –
Furthermore, according to IntoTheBlock, 53% of investors recorded profit at BTC’s press time prices. On the contrary, 39% of the holders were in loss.
In addition to this, holder composition by time projected something positive too. A total of 62% held their coins for a period of more than one year, while 32% have held their coins for between one to 12 months. Proving more support for the holding activity, Glassnode too underlined something similar. BTC’s addresses with a balance of 1 BTC hit a new high.
That’s not all.
In fact, despite the bearish outlook, the adoption rate didn’t fail to satisfy the crypto’s credentials. Talking about adoption, BTC acquiring giants within this game (large holders) too reiterated the trend. For instance, look at MicroStrategy‘s latest spree.
In a prospectus filed with the SEC on 9 September, the company aims to sell up to $500 million in stocks to fund more Bitcoin purchases. Since 2020, MicroStrategy has purchased about 130,000 Bitcoins, worth more than $2 billion, using funds raised from stock and bond offerings.